Rating
Sudan risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 12.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated13m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 13:42:44 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 15:42:44 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity13.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI3.1/100
CFI activity proxy39.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 33/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- BtoAindex 28 → 12Yellow → Green13h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.8 → 13.2population component 5.6 → 3.1forecast component 46.5 → 39.0
Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 12). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributed. severity component 49.8 → 13.2. population component 5.6 → 3.1. forecast component 46.5 → 39.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — SD Detected: 2026-10-12T11:08:00.000Z CalamityScore: 39/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 31,312 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: SD. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoBindex 22 → 281d agoActivity score changed from 22 to 28Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 36.6 → 49.8population component 4.3 → 5.6forecast component 43.5 → 46.5
- BtoBindex 28 → 221d agoActivity score changed from 28 to 22Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.0 → 36.6population component 6.6 → 4.3forecast component 45.0 → 43.5
- AtoBindex 20 → 282d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 28)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.6 → 49.0population component 5.2 → 6.6forecast component 42.0 → 45.0
- BtoAindex 22 → 202d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 20)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.6 → 31.6population component 5.2 → 5.2
- AtoBindex 9 → 22Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 9 → 22)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 35.6population component 0.0 → 5.2forecast component 37.5 → 42.0
- BtoAindex 22 → 9Yellow → Green6d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 9)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.0 → 7.2forecast component 45.0 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 18 → 226d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.8 → 37.0forecast component 42.0 → 45.0
- AtoAindex 15 → 18Green → Yellow7d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.0 → 29.8forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 18 → 15Yellow → Green7d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 23.0forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 12 → 18Green → Yellow8d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.8 → 30.2forecast component 37.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 15 → 12Yellow → Green9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 15.8forecast component 45.0 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 159d agoActivity score changed from 9 to 15Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 21.6forecast component 37.5 → 45.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 9Green → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 7Yellow → Green12d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 15 → 9Orange → Yellow15d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 5.4forecast component 49.5 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 10 → 15Yellow → Orange16d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 19.8forecast component 45.0 → 49.5
- AtoAindex 6 → 10Green → Yellow17d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 4.4 → 9.0forecast component 29.3 → 45.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 6Yellow → Green18d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.8 → 4.4forecast component 30.0 → 29.3
- AtoAindex 10 → 8Green → Yellow19d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 9.8forecast component 45.0 → 30.0