Forecast

Calamity Forecast Index a reading, not a prediction

Heuristic activity and scenario indices for the country and hazard pairs we cover. CFI is not a calibrated event probability.

88 current pairs in this result. 711 expired or incomplete assessments excluded from current ranking. Missing coverage is unassessed, not low risk. Model cards

Last computed 2026-10-12 22:14:06 UTC

Highest current activity indices

Highest current Calamity Forecast Index by country
Country	CFI score	Risk level	Hazard	Primary driver
Indonesia Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	43	Elevated	Air Quality	Scenario to monitor: Air Quality Emergency from Extended satellite heat detection; uncalibrated interaction weight; target extent not determined
Brazil Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Brazil
Mozambique Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Mozambique
Tanzania Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Tanzania
United States Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for United States
Zambia Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for ZM
Australia Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Australia
Papua New Guinea Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Papua New Guinea
Madagascar Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Madagascar
Zimbabwe Current · cfi-2 · 12 Oct 22:14 to 13 Oct 00:14 UTC	42	Elevated	Fire	Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for ZW

Methodology

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) combines five heuristic components for selected country × hazard pairs. It has not been validated as a predictive probability:

30%Target scenario weight, rule-generated secondary-hazard attention
25%Recorded activity frequency, episodes per reporting day in the archive window
20%Seasonal prior, global calendar-month prior, not regional calibration
15%Recent activity ratio, recent records against their reporting-day baseline
10%Media attention level, recorded recent coverage

Five risk levelsCritical 80–100High 60–79Elevated 40–59Moderate 20–39Low 0–19

Full methodology →

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