Calamity
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Rating

Nigeria risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 29.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated16m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-13 19:10:08 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 21:10:08 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity5151.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI1111.3/100
CFI activity proxy4443.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 51/100 · Eligible records: 5

Rating history

  1. AtoBindex 10 → 29Green → Yellow2h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 29)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 51.2population component 1.0 → 11.3forecast component 42.0 → 43.5

    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 29). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributed. severity component 9.6 → 51.2. population component 1.0 → 11.3. forecast component 42.0 → 43.5. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — NG Detected: 2026-10-13T12:29:00.000Z CalamityScore: 55/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 29,312 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: NG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 18 → 1019h ago
    Activity score changed from 18 to 10Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.6 → 9.6population component 2.9 → 1.0
  3. BtoAindex 31 → 18Yellow → Green1d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 18)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.0 → 26.6population component 37.4 → 2.9
  4. AtoBindex 19 → 31Green → Yellow2d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 42.0population component 3.8 → 37.4
  5. AtoAindex 11 → 192d ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 19Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.0 → 28.8population component 1.2 → 3.8
  6. BtoAindex 26 → 11Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 11.0population component 20.1 → 1.2
  7. AtoBindex 15 → 26Green → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.0 → 38.4population component 1.1 → 20.1
  8. AtoAindex 10 → 153d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 15Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.0 → 20.0population component 0.6 → 1.1
  9. BtoAindex 31 → 108d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 10)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 10.0population component 100.0 → 0.6
  10. AtoBindex 10 → 31Yellow → Green9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 31)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 100.0
  11. BtoAindex 32 → 10Orange → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 10)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.6 → 9.0population component 40.3 → 0.0forecast component 49.5 → 42.0
  12. BtoBindex 22 → 32Yellow → Orange10d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 40.6population component 1.7 → 40.3
  13. AtoBindex 18 → 2210d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 22)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.8 → 34.6population component 1.7 → 1.7forecast component 46.5 → 49.5
  14. CtoAindex 54 → 18Red → Yellow10d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 54 → 18)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.4 → 25.8population component 100.0 → 1.7forecast component 51.0 → 46.5
  15. CtoCindex 48 → 54Orange → Red11d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.0 → 66.4population component 97.3 → 100.0
  16. BtoCindex 26 → 4812d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 48)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 52.0population component 17.2 → 97.3forecast component 48.0 → 51.0
  17. AtoBindex 17 → 26Yellow → Orange12d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 26)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.2 → 38.4population component 0.0 → 17.2
  18. AtoAindex 11 → 1712d ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 17Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 25.2forecast component 46.5 → 48.0
  19. AtoAindex 7 → 11Green → Yellow13d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 10.8forecast component 45.0 → 46.5
  20. AtoAindex 13 → 7Yellow → Green13d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 1.8forecast component 46.5 → 45.0
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