Rating
Mali risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 9.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated2m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 12:08:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 14:08:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity8.6/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI0.0/100
CFI activity proxy34.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 43/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 7 → 1219h agoActivity score changed from 7 to 12Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 15.8forecast component 34.5 → 37.5
Activity score changed from 7 to 12. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributed. severity component 3.6 → 15.8. forecast component 34.5 → 37.5. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ML Detected: 2026-10-12T14:31:00.000Z CalamityScore: 43/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: ML. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Yellow → Green10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 3.6forecast component 40.5 → 34.5
- BtoAindex 29 → 10Orange → Yellow11d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 29 → 10)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.6 → 10.8cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoBindex 17 → 29Yellow → Orange11d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 29)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 23.2 → 13.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.3 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 10 → 1712d agoActivity score changed from 10 to 17Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 23.2population component 0.0 → 0.3forecast component 43.5 → 51.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 10Green → Yellow13d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.0forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 13 → 7Yellow → Green13d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 3.6forecast component 46.5 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 14 → 13Orange → Yellow15d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.8 → 14.4population component 0.4 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 14Yellow → Orange15d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 17.8population component 0.0 → 0.4forecast component 39.0 → 46.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Green → Yellow17d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 5.4forecast component 40.5 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green19d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Green → Yellow21d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green21d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6
- AtoAindex 9 → 8Green → Yellow23d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 5.4forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 13 → 9Yellow → Green24d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 7.2forecast component 45.0 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 13Green → Yellow27d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 14.4forecast component 40.5 → 45.0
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow93d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow93d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow93d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow93d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)