Rating
Lithuania risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 21.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated33m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-14 06:41:37 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-14 08:41:37 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity14.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI46.7/100
CFI activity proxy36.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 37/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- CtoBindex 43 → 21Yellow → Green33m agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 21)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — South Eastern Baltic, Curonian Lagoon, Lithuania (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.2 → 14.8population component 100.0 → 46.7forecast component 40.5 → 36.0
Country rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 21). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — South Eastern Baltic, Curonian Lagoon, Lithuania (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributed. severity component 43.2 → 14.8. population component 100.0 → 46.7. forecast component 40.5 → 36.0. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — South Eastern Baltic, Curonian Lagoon, Lithuania — LT Detected: 2026-10-13T23:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 37/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 224,181 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: LT. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoCindex 40 → 438h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 43)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kaunas, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.8 → 43.2forecast component 39.0 → 40.5
- CtoBindex 54 → 409h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 54 → 40)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kaunas, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 35.8forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- AtoCindex 13 → 54Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 13 → 54)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 68.8population component 24.3 → 100.0forecast component 37.5 → 43.5
- CtoAindex 51 → 13Yellow → Green4d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 51 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Klaipėda, Lithuania (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.4 → 7.4population component 100.0 → 24.3forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
- BtoCindex 33 → 51Green → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 33 → 51)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.2 → 61.4forecast component 36.0 → 43.5
- AtoBindex 13 → 337d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 33)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 20.2population component 24.3 → 100.0forecast component 37.5 → 36.0
- CtoAindex 54 → 13Yellow → Green9d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 54 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Klaipėda, Lithuania (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 7.4population component 100.0 → 24.3forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
- BtoCindex 37 → 5410d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 37 → 54)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.6 → 68.8forecast component 37.5 → 43.5
- BtoBindex 35 → 37Green → Yellow12d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.2 → 27.6forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 15 → 3515d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 35)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.8 → 20.2population component 16.8 → 100.0
- BtoAindex 32 → 1519d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 15)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Marijampolė, Lithuania (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.8 → 12.8population component 96.2 → 16.8forecast component 45.0 → 43.5
- CtoBindex 44 → 32Yellow → Green22d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 32)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.2 → 13.8population component 100.0 → 96.2forecast component 46.5 → 45.0
- AtoCindex 11 → 44Green → Yellow23d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 11 → 44)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kaunas, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 6.4 → 42.2population component 7.3 → 100.0
- AtoAindex 19 → 1124d agoActivity score changed from 19 to 11Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Telsiai, Lithuania (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.8 → 6.4population component 31.6 → 7.3
- BtoAindex 35 → 1925d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 19)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Klaipėda, Lithuania (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.2 → 13.8population component 100.0 → 31.6forecast component 48.0 → 46.5
- CtoBindex 52 → 35Yellow → Green28d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 52 → 35)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.4 → 20.2
- DtoCindex 68 → 5730d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 68 → 57)Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41)
- BtoDindex 33 → 6830d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 33 → 68)Moderate weather warning — Vilnius, Lithuania (CalamityScore 41)
- CtoAindex 43 → 19Yellow → Green33d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 43 → 19)Operational status changed from yellow to greenModerate weather warning — Telsiai, Lithuania (CalamityScore 32)