Rating
Italy risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 49.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated14m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 10:37:26 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 12:37:26 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity52.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy51.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 6
Rating history
- CtoCindex 44 → 49Yellow → Orange1h agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Puglia, Italy (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.6 → 52.2
Operational status changed from yellow to orange. Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Puglia, Italy (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed. severity component 40.6 → 52.2. Context: EVENT: Severe weather warning — Puglia, Italy — IT Detected: 2026-10-13T08:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 53/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 1,395,496 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IT. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoCindex 52 → 444h agoActivity score changed from 52 to 44Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Puglia, Italy (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 60.2 → 40.6
- BtoCindex 39 → 524h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 52)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Sicilia, Italy (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 60.2
- DtoBindex 69 → 399h agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 69 → 39)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Sicilia, Italy (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 28.8forecast component 60.0 → 51.0
- CtoDindex 59 → 6921h agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 69)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Sicilia, Italy (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 76.8 → 100.0forecast component 52.5 → 60.0
- DtoCindex 68 → 5923h agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 68 → 59)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Sicilia, Italy (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 76.8
- DtoDindex 67 → 68Orange → Yellow1d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Yellow hydrogeological alert — Piana campana, Napoli, Isole e Area vesuviana (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedforecast component 45.5 → 52.5
- AtoDindex 16 → 67Green → Orange4d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 16 → 67)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Orange hydrogeological alert — Piana campana, Napoli, Isole e Area vesuviana (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.4 → 100.0population component 24.6 → 100.0forecast component 35.3 → 45.5
- AtoAindex 5 → 164d agoActivity score changed from 5 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.8 → 15.4population component 0.0 → 24.6forecast component 16.5 → 35.3
- DtoAindex 67 → 5Orange → Green5d agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 67 → 5)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality — Sensor.Community (CalamityScore 29); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 5.8population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 47.3 → 16.5
- BtoDindex 23 → 67Green → Orange5d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 23 → 67)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.0 → 100.0population component 34.1 → 100.0forecast component 54.0 → 47.3
- AtoBindex 14 → 235d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 23)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 21.0population component 10.0 → 34.1
- BtoAindex 38 → 14Yellow → Green7d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 14)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 50.6 → 8.8population component 47.9 → 10.0
- BtoBindex 26 → 38Green → Yellow7d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.0 → 50.6population component 25.3 → 47.9
- AtoBindex 18 → 267d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 26)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.6 → 32.0population component 6.1 → 25.3
- BtoAindex 22 → 187d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 18)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 20.6population component 8.2 → 6.1
- BtoBindex 31 → 22Yellow → Green8d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 30.2population component 34.1 → 8.2
- BtoBindex 37 → 318d agoActivity score changed from 37 to 31Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.4 → 40.2population component 65.1 → 34.1
- BtoBindex 26 → 37Green → Yellow8d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.0 → 40.4population component 32.4 → 65.1
- AtoBindex 13 → 268d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 26)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 29.0population component 5.6 → 32.4