Rating
Indonesia risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-10 17:16:10 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-10 19:16:10 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 57/100 · Eligible records: 74
Mean event index: 16/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- EtoEindex 92 → 95Red → Orange5d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributedforecast component 48.0 → 63.8
Operational status changed from red to orange. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributed. forecast component 48.0 → 63.8. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ID Detected: 2026-10-04T18:47:00.000Z CalamityScore: 82/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 944,631 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ID. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- EtoEindex 92 → 92Orange → Red5d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 87); cause of change not attributed11 new cascade alert(s)forecast component 49.0 → 48.0
- EtoEindex 92 → 92Red → Orange6d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributedforecast component 49.5 → 49.0
- EtoEindex 92 → 92Orange → Red6d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributed
- EtoEindex 92 → 92Red → Orange6d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributed23 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoEindex 92 → 92Orange → Red6d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 73); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoEindex 94 → 92Red → Orange6d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 77); cause of change not attributedforecast component 59.5 → 49.5
- DtoEindex 65 → 9425d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 65 → 94)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributed119 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 30.8 → 59.5
- EtoDindex 92 → 6525d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 92 → 65)Current dominant event: Hazardous Air Quality (AQI 500) (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 47.6 → 30.8
- CtoEindex 41 → 95Orange → Red27d agoCountry rating changed from C to E (score 41 → 95)Operational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 82)69 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoCindex 96 → 41Red → Orange27d agoCountry rating changed from E to C (score 96 → 41)Operational status changed from red to orangeSinabung (Indonesia) - Report for 27 August-2 September 2026 - New Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 44)
- CtoEindex 44 → 96Orange → Red27d agoCountry rating changed from C to E (score 44 → 96)Operational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 82)69 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoCindex 96 → 44Red → Orange27d agoCountry rating changed from E to C (score 96 → 44)Operational status changed from red to orangeSinabung (Indonesia) - Report for 27 August-2 September 2026 - New Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 44)
- CtoEindex 44 → 96Orange → Red29d agoCountry rating changed from C to E (score 44 → 96)Operational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 78)82 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoCindex 96 → 44Red → Orange29d agoCountry rating changed from E to C (score 96 → 44)Operational status changed from red to orangeSinabung (Indonesia) - Report for 27 August-2 September 2026 - New Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 44)
- BtoEindex 24 → 96Yellow → Red32d agoCountry rating changed from B to E (score 24 → 96)Operational status changed from yellow to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 87)71 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoBindex 96 → 24Red → Yellow32d agoCountry rating changed from E to B (score 96 → 24)Operational status changed from red to yellowM 5.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 30)
- DtoEindex 70 → 9635d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 70 → 96)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 82)101 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoDindex 96 → 7035d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 96 → 70)Very Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 229) (CalamityScore 57)
- AtoEindex 8 → 97Green → Red39d agoCountry rating changed from A to E (score 8 → 97)Operational status changed from green to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 78)45 new cascade alert(s)