Calamity
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Rating

Russia risk rating

Activity gradeCindex 41.0/100
Operational statusRed
Last updated21m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-02 09:33:19 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-02 11:33:19 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity6665.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI4848.0/100
CFI activity proxy3635.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 20/100 · Eligible records: 14

Volcano

Mean event index: 14/100 · Eligible records: 2

Weather

Mean event index: 16/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. BtoCindex 32 → 41Orange → Red6h ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 32 → 41)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.2 → 65.8population component 19.9 → 48.0

    Country rating changed from B to C (score 32 → 41). Operational status changed from orange to red. Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 56.2 → 65.8. population component 19.9 → 48.0. Context: EVENT: Large Wildfire — RU Detected: 2026-10-02T00:35:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: critical URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 203,857 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: RU. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoBindex 27 → 327h ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 32Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.8 → 56.2population component 16.6 → 19.9forecast component 37.5 → 35.5
  3. DtoBindex 62 → 27Red → Orange9h ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 27)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 98.2 → 45.8population component 83.4 → 16.6
  4. CtoDindex 60 → 621d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 62)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 97.8 → 98.2population component 83.3 → 83.4forecast component 31.0 → 37.5
  5. CtoCindex 52 → 601d ago
    Activity score changed from 52 to 60Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.0 → 97.8population component 66.0 → 83.3
  6. CtoCindex 42 → 52Orange → Red1d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.0 → 85.0population component 34.5 → 66.0
  7. CtoCindex 57 → 42Red → Orange1d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.8 → 75.0population component 66.5 → 34.5forecast component 39.8 → 31.0
  8. CtoCindex 50 → 571d ago
    Activity score changed from 50 to 57Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 77.8 → 94.8population component 67.0 → 66.5
  9. CtoCindex 44 → 501d ago
    Activity score changed from 44 to 50Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 58.2 → 77.8population component 71.5 → 67.0
  10. BtoCindex 38 → 441d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 44)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.2 → 58.2population component 70.7 → 71.5forecast component 39.0 → 39.8
  11. BtoBindex 24 → 38Orange → Red2d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.0 → 45.2population component 27.8 → 70.7
  12. CtoBindex 47 → 242d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 47 → 24)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 88.2 → 32.0population component 29.3 → 27.8forecast component 39.8 → 39.0
  13. CtoCindex 41 → 472d ago
    Activity score changed from 41 to 47Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.0 → 88.2population component 29.4 → 29.3
  14. BtoCindex 40 → 413d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 41)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 27.8 → 29.4
  15. BtoBindex 27 → 403d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 40Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 51.6 → 72.0population component 0.0 → 27.8
  16. CtoBindex 51 → 27Red → Orange3d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 27)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.0 → 51.6population component 43.4 → 0.0forecast component 39.5 → 39.8
  17. CtoCindex 56 → 513d ago
    Activity score changed from 56 to 51Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 92.0population component 54.1 → 43.4forecast component 35.3 → 39.5
  18. CtoCindex 51 → 563d ago
    Activity score changed from 51 to 56Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 151) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.0 → 100.0population component 43.4 → 54.1forecast component 39.5 → 35.3
  19. CtoCindex 41 → 513d ago
    Activity score changed from 41 to 51Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 65.0 → 92.0population component 43.5 → 43.4
  20. BtoCindex 36 → 413d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 36 → 41)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.8 → 65.0forecast component 39.8 → 39.5
Forecast for RussiaActive events in Russia