Forecast
Russia risk assessment
8 of 9 hazard scores have expired or lack recorded validity and are shown only as last assessments, excluded from the current maximum and colours. Missing or expired coverage does not establish zero hazard.
The CFI is a heuristic activity and scenario index. The activity rating aggregates reported events and shares inputs with CFI. Neither is a calibrated probability or a measure of structural vulnerability. Unlisted country–hazard pairs are unassessed, not zero. Model cards and formulas.
Risk assessment by hazard type
| Hazard | Score | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Quality | Expired, last elevated | Scenario to monitor: Air Quality Emergency from Major Wildfire; uncalibrated interaction weight; target extent not determined | |
| Fire | Moderate | Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Russia | |
| Flood | Unassessed, last moderate | Retired model: explanation withheld | |
| Weather | Expired, last moderate | Not recorded | |
| River Flood | Expired, last low | Not recorded | |
| Volcano | Expired, last low | Not recorded | |
| Earthquake | Expired, last low | Not recorded | |
| Asteroid | Expired, last low | Not recorded | |
| Landslide | Expired, last low | Not recorded |
Air Qualityrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-09-29 06:35:19 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-29 08:35:19 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 57
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 15 · Target scenario weight: 100 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Firerecorded inputs
Current assessment · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-02 16:23:23 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-02 18:23:23 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 79
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 37 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Floodrecorded inputs
Not currently assessed · Model legacy
Computed: 2026-09-09 19:26:07 UTC · Valid until: Not recorded
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
Weatherrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-02 13:57:13 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-02 15:57:13 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 11
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 21 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
River Floodrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-09-23 12:10:39 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-23 14:10:39 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- not evaluated
- reporting Days:
- 0
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 5.800000000000001 · Target scenario weight: 24 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Volcanorecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-02 11:13:57 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-02 13:13:57 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 3
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 13 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Earthquakerecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-01 06:19:45 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-01 08:19:45 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 16
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 12 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Asteroidrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-09-25 11:19:24 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-25 13:19:24 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 1
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 10 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Landsliderecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-01 03:50:35 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-01 05:50:35 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- not evaluated
- reporting Days:
- 0
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 5.9 · Target scenario weight: 7 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary