Rating
Iran risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-09-24 18:26:26 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-24 20:26:26 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 28/100 · Eligible records: 26
Rating history
- CtoCindex 47 → 5814h agoActivity score changed from 47 to 58Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 84.4 → 100.0population component 22.0 → 45.8
Activity score changed from 47 to 58. Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. severity component 84.4 → 100.0. population component 22.0 → 45.8. Context: EVENT: Major Wildfire — IR Detected: 2026-09-23T22:52:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: critical URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 152,353 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area HISTORICAL CONTEXT: This is a significant fire event requiring immediate attention. Location: IR region. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoCindex 34 → 47Orange → Red18h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 47)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 57.2 → 84.4population component 10.1 → 22.0
- DtoBindex 69 → 34Red → Orange18h agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 69 → 34)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 57.2population component 100.0 → 10.1
- DtoDindex 61 → 691d agoActivity score changed from 61 to 69Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 57.5 → 100.0
- CtoDindex 59 → 611d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 61)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 46.8 → 57.5
- CtoCindex 49 → 591d agoActivity score changed from 49 to 59Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.0 → 100.0population component 16.5 → 46.8
- DtoCindex 63 → 491d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 63 → 49)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 91.0population component 70.2 → 16.5
- DtoDindex 68 → 632d agoActivity score changed from 68 to 63Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 94.5 → 70.2
- DtoDindex 62 → 682d agoActivity score changed from 62 to 68Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 64.2 → 94.5
- CtoDindex 59 → 622d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 62)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 99.0 → 100.0population component 50.9 → 64.2
- CtoCindex 41 → 592d agoActivity score changed from 41 to 59Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.2 → 99.0population component 36.6 → 50.9
- DtoCindex 67 → 412d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 67 → 41)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 61.2population component 90.1 → 36.6
- DtoDindex 61 → 673d agoActivity score changed from 61 to 67Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 61.2 → 90.1
- CtoDindex 60 → 613d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 61)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 54.7 → 61.2
- DtoCindex 69 → 603d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 69 → 60)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 100.0 → 54.7forecast component 63.0 → 61.5
- DtoDindex 62 → 694d agoActivity score changed from 62 to 69Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 63.1 → 100.0forecast component 61.5 → 63.0
- DtoDindex 69 → 624d agoActivity score changed from 69 to 62Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 100.0 → 63.1forecast component 63.0 → 61.5
- DtoDindex 63 → 694d agoActivity score changed from 63 to 69Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 67.4 → 100.0forecast component 61.5 → 63.0
- CtoDindex 57 → 635d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 57 → 63)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 37.9 → 67.4
- BtoCindex 35 → 57Orange → Red5d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 57)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 63.4 → 100.0population component 3.9 → 37.9